AI is igniting demand for optical substrates. Driven by EML and silicon photonics, AXT's InP backlog has topped $100M. Here are the key takeaways from the latest call and how AXT plans to double capacity for the CPO era.

In one day LandMark Optoelectronics locked in materials, orders and tools, and its stock hit limit-up at NT$3,255. But the five board resolutions are three facets of one story: materials, orders and machines, and companies lock these down by contract when they are lifelines, not when they are safe.

With a three-year deal and a ~US$22.3M prepayment, Coherent has locked in the scarcest 6-inch InP wafers. This isn't ordinary procurement — it's supply insurance, marking the InP shortage's shift from waiting in line to grabbing capacity at the source, and forcing a choice between cheapest China capacity and Non-China supply insurance.

AI's deepest bottleneck isn't the GPU — it's a 6-inch InP wafer. Silicon photonics and TFLN still need it to emit light, supply falls more than 70% short, volume relief waits until 2028, and NVIDIA has stepped in to lock up capacity. STT maps the chain from phosphorus to laser and where Taiwan stands.

AXT didn't just grow this quarter — it shifted gears. Record InP revenue of $30.7M lifted gross margin to 45% and flipped the company to profit. Supply is now the only ceiling: backlog tops $100M and this year's capacity target is raised to more than triple.