A not-yet-effective FCC draft rule repriced the optical supply chain in a week: Innolight plunged, Coherent soared over 40%. But the real bottleneck isn't module assembly; it's upstream EML and InP. The policy arbitrage is real, the capacity shift is slower.

Innolight beat its full-year 2025 revenue and profit in just six months, with gross margin up 6.63 points to 46.59%. Yet management spent almost the entire call on 2027: orders, first NPO deliveries and the capacity its HK$53.4 billion raise will build.