CPO Loses Two Drivers: Jensen Huang's Future and the Lumentum Deal Favor NPO, Coherent and ASICs
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For two years NVIDIA has effectively set the pace of CPO. Spectrum-X is the first CPO switch, co-developed by NVIDIA and TSMC. Feynman, expected in 2028, supports both copper and CPO. And in March NVIDIA invested $2 billion each in Coherent and Lumentum, locking in both suppliers of 400 mW CW lasers.
Over the past two weeks, both pillars of that plan moved at once.
First, on Nov 2 Marvell announced an all-stock acquisition of Lumentum at an implied enterprise value of about $115 billion, expected to close in the first half of 2028.
Second, on Nov 8 NVIDIA's board opened an independent investigation after reports that Jensen Huang had been the target of a foreign intelligence effort. On the night of Nov 11 the board met on whether to remove him; as of Nov 12 no decision had been announced.
STT's view: CPO's direction holds, but its volume ramp will slip. The window goes to players that do not bet on a single architecture.
▲ Timeline of NVIDIA's 2026 CPO plan and the two new variables (Image source: Simple Tech Trend original; data from NVIDIA, Marvell, Lumentum, Coherent)
What's in the premium section
The familiar script: how NVIDIA single-handedly set CPO's timeline, specs and laser supply
Jensen Huang's future: the board's three options, and which decisions slow down first
NVIDIA roadmap: Rubin, Feynman, CPO and ecosystem investments, what is locked in and what may be reshuffled
Laser supply: 400 mW CW lasers go from two suppliers to one independent
Beneficiary map: where NPO, Coherent, ASICs and AMD sit across three architectures
The champion effect: without on-stage backing, what standard CSPs fall back on
5 counterarguments
4 signals to watch
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That's the summary of this piece.
STT's full analysis, covering how Huang's future affects NVIDIA's decisions, what it means that only one independent 400 mW laser supplier remains, the NPO / Coherent / ASIC / AMD beneficiary map and the counterarguments, is in the premium section with 2 original charts.
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