Credo's Q4 FY26 revenue alone exceeded all of FY25, but the real story is the plan to turn optics into a $600M+ business in FY27. AEC is still making money, optics is taking the baton, and ZeroFlap prices "reliability" at triple-digit ASPs. The back-half-loaded guidance hides the biggest execution risk.

PCIe 7 keeps PAM4 but doubles insertion loss per inch, turning retimers from optional to mandatory. Astera Labs laid out the reach and pJ/bit trade-offs of AEC, ODSP and LPO, and noted that PCIe-SIG deliberately leaves the optical side undefined—where supply chain positioning happens.

Credo grew revenue 114.7% YoY as optics officially became its second growth engine. But the full-year pledge of 85%+ growth implies roughly $1.46B of second-half revenue, 1.45x the first half. If any of the three pillars slips a quarter, the math gets ugly.